今天看网易科技有条关于中国某位律师建议”对微软进行10亿美元的处罚“的新闻，笔者看了之后感到十分纳闷，这位律师认为”认为，依据《反垄断法》关于市场支配地位的判断标准，微软产品在中国市场的市场垄断地位毋庸置疑。微软产品在中国的销售价是最高的，这就是一个滥用市场支配地位实施价格垄断获取暴利的违法行为。“   我怀疑这个律师的逻辑能力，下面笔者来说明为什么这个律师说的很操蛋。

第一：盗版那部分市场份额怎么算？

中国的市场环境和欧盟不一样，欧盟国家的人们在花钱用微软的正版软件，而中国大多数是在用盗版，所以市场占有率作为判断垄断依据很扯淡。这个律师应该先调查下中国用微软的盗版和正版的比例是多少？难道让微软为中国的盗版交10亿的感谢费？

第二：乱扣帽子，不尊重法律的公正性。

中国的办公软件发展不起来难道是微软的问题吗？为什么乔布斯的apple就能发展起来呢？不要忘了中国的国情和基础，不能自己做不好事情，反而麻烦别人做的好把自己给耽误了，这种逻辑是一种流氓逻辑，而非一个法律公正性的体现。我们穷不要紧，但是我们也不能动不动搞革命，仇富心理不用被滥用在法律上，杀富济贫也不能不讲道理。

第三：反垄断标准要科学公正，不能见着大腕就乱砍。

反垄断要科学公正，比如市场地位的分析方法和成分分析，盈利渠道和市场份额的比例等等。如果加上盗版用户来平均，那么微软的办公软件根本不贵，微软在中国有特殊性，让人家交10亿美元于理不通，因为按照国际上的版权法规，我们要给人家微软多少版权费啊。如果不合逻辑地处罚微软，一定会吓坏外资企业，即使我们做了地头蛇又能怎么样呢？老百姓怕是更受气。。

第四：中国经济和产业的通病，不应该强加给微软。

中国手机业基本上沦陷了，为什么沦陷？这是我们产业结构和企业发展的战略出了问题，我们没有创新，我们在用户为中心的时代没有去充分尊重和满足用户，这些是请领导吃饭解决不了的问题。我们是不是要去控告别人的创新垄断呢？是不是控告别人太有想象力呢？

笔者认为，中国有这样不靠谱的律师才是悲哀，海尔赢得世界尊重靠的产品，华为做得好是技术跟的上，如果我们过分地滥用行政干预企业和市场，早晚把中国企业都惯出毛病来。最后，笔者建议这位律师在死套《反垄断法》的同时，也参考下国际的版权法、知识产权法，我们要讲理，不能把必要、充要、充分这些逻辑都搞不清楚吧。

未来的中国是世界的核心之一，必然要以国际化和开放性的胸怀去面对经济和文化，玩愤青、窝里横都是要不得的。

杨致远在致股东的信中最后说道：“This is a great company and we are moving quickly to make it even better.”笔者心中不觉地产生一阵酸楚的感觉：杨致远作为华人的骄傲，我始终充满着敬意和期待，不过作为一个独立的评论分析人，我认为雅虎的独立性是最重要的，伟大并不意味着不可颠覆，因为曾经的altavista也很伟大、netscape很伟大、DOS很伟大。

胡紫薇事件让国人重新审视价值观的问题，一个世纪大国应该能够输出价值观。其实，一个伟大的公司何尝不是的呢？谷歌的成功很大程度上取决于他们的价值观，因为笔者认为企业的价值观决定着企业的组织结构和文化。谷歌的理想主义和长尾认识成就了他们的持久的创新力和市场驱动力，而反观雅虎则是跟着屁股走、创新力低下，同时雅虎的文化与价值观也变得臃肿和迷茫，雅虎的高层的判断上总是落伍。

裁员是正确的，但是不能只是财报的原因！雅虎的结构不如谷歌更贴近网络，笔者甚至怀疑：雅虎的高层自己是否对雅虎文化的未来有清晰的构想？

杨致远与张朝阳

笔者之所以把它们放在一起，是因为雅虎的困境也曾经困扰过张朝阳，搜狐过去一年的变化有目共睹，张朝阳的选择是正确的。反观雅虎，杨致远也应该果敢些，认清形势，果断出手，如果过于忧虑，把太多精力放在为华尔街烦恼，那么雅虎就是相当危险的。

如果雅虎高层决策能力一直落后，那么雅虎根本不值400亿，笔者认为互联网公司的核心是价值观与人才，而雅虎这两方面都不具备优势，同时雅虎的产品策划与推广存在严重问题，我对杨致远说雅虎是用户滞留时间最长的网站非常怀疑。雅虎的高层似乎不知道雅虎的方向，他们推荐长尾理论但是自己没有实践，而谷歌却知道蚂蚁雄兵的道理。

收购对马云的影响

收购如果成功，杨致远未必是雅虎的CEO，那么马云也是有可能离开阿里巴巴，但是笔者认为收购对阿里集团有好处。虽然阿里是oracle的用户，但是马云的电子商务资源对于微软是可以想到的，微软有很多产品要卖。不过，刚忙完上市的马云恐怕不愿意换伙伴——一个垄断了一个时代的伙伴。

雅虎需要新形象、新口号

其实柳华芳是个很呆板的人，不过现在的年轻人都不像我那样，现在的年轻人与过去很不同，笔者有理由认为雅虎需要根据各国各年龄的社会心理来重新审视一下自己的价值观。

雅虎很伟大，但并非不可颠覆。一个女人选择男人并非看他多么雄伟，而是他是否能给她快乐。

不看历史的人，经常重复历史；沉溺于历史的人，经常被历史遗弃！

————————————————————————————————————杨致远原信：——

Yahoo has just released the following letter to shareholders outlining its reasoning for rejecting Microsoft’s offer to buy the company. In it, CEO and co-founder Jerry Yang emphasizes Yahoo’s strengths as both an online destination and an advertising network, and argues that Yahoo is better off going it alone than combining with Microsoft. He states: “The global online advertising market is projected to grow from $45 billion in 2007 to $75 billion in 2010. And we are moving quickly to take advantage of what we see as a unique window of time in the growth - and evolution - of this market to build market share and to create value for stockholders.”

He says that even though Yahoo is the No. 1 Web destination, his goal is to increase visits by 15 percent annually. Re-emphasizing his strategy of being the key starting point on the Web, he adds, “we are particularly excited about our growth prospects in mobile, the biggest emerging starting point in the world.” (We could have told you that). All in all, the letter is pretty much a formality without any major new arguments, but it does put Yahoo’s best face forward to its shareholders. We’re No. 1, Yang is saying, and we don’t need Microsoft. What he doesn’t explain is how Yahoo got into this pickle in the first place.

Here is the full text of the letter:

Dear Stockholders,On February 1, 2008, Microsoft made an unsolicited proposal to acquire your company. As much has been reported in the press recently, I wanted to reach out to you personally to let you know why your Board of Directors, after a careful review by Yahoo!’s management along with our financial and legal advisors, believes that Microsoft’s proposal substantially undervalues Yahoo! and is not in the best interests of our stockholders.Most importantly, I want you to know that your Board is continuously evaluating all of Yahoo!’s strategic options in the context of the rapidly evolving industry environment, and we remain committed to pursuing initiatives that maximize value for all our stockholders.We have a unique combination of strengths

– Yahoo! is one of the most recognizable and admired brands in the world. We have over 500 million users (nearly 1 out of every 2 internet users worldwide). In the U.S., we are # 1 in many of the most used online services including personalized home pages, mail, news, music, shopping and travel. Because we have leadership positions in so many indispensable online services, users spend more time on Yahoo! sites than anywhere else online.

– Yahoo! is an attractive partner for marketers. Yahoo! is #1 in online display advertising, which represents 90% of the advertising inventory on the web, and we are also a leader in search marketing and a pioneer in the growing fields of mobile advertising and online video advertising. Through Yahoo!, advertisers can now connect with consumers on our owned sites as well as those of our growing network of partners including eBay, Comcast, AT&T, a consortium of over 600 newspapers, Forbes.com, Cars.com, WebMD and more.

– Yahoo! has the financial flexibility to execute our plans, thanks to our healthy cash balance, which exceeded $2 billion as of December 31, 2007, and our substantial operating cash flow, which we expect to grow double digits in 2009.

– Yahoo! has made important investments in our core computing infrastructure enabling us to dramatically increase the speed of our search engine updates even while handling vast and growing quantities of data.

– In addition, we have the added value of our substantial, unconsolidated investments in Japan and China. We have substantial positions in Yahoo! Japan, the leader in its market, and Alibaba, which is strongly positioned in China, a market with enormous growth potential.

These assets–our brand and its audience, our relationships with marketers, our financial strength, our technology, and our strategic investments–are the core of our value and our leadership position in the industry.

We have a huge market opportunity - and are uniquely positioned to capitalize on it

The global online advertising market is projected to grow from $45 billion in 2007 to $75 billion in 2010. And we are moving quickly to take advantage of what we see as a unique window of time in the growth - and evolution - of this market to build market share and to create value for stockholders.

We are executing our strategy - and making headway

We have taken significant but disciplined steps to refocus our business on our objectives to become the starting point for the most consumers and the must buy for the most advertisers and enhance Yahoo!’s long-term performance.

Starting Point Objective: Our goal is to grow visits to key Yahoo! starting points and properties, where users enter the Internet, by 15% per year over the next several years. We are the most visited site in the U.S., and we continue to grow - we experienced double-digit growth in U.S. users in 2007 on our Yahoo.com home page.

In addition to traditional starting points on the PC - including our home pages, mail, My Yahoo! and search, we are particularly excited about our growth prospects in mobile, the biggest emerging starting point in the world. Globally, there are twice as many users of mobile devices as users of personal computers, and mobile advertising is projected to grow substantially in the coming years. We have an important competitive edge as the number one mobile destination in the U.S., and we are building a superior mobile experience for Yahoo! users globally so we can further capitalize on this opportunity.

Must Buy Objective: We are working to make online advertising easier and more effective for marketers, opening up new ways for them to connect with consumers. We’ve successfully completed the global roll-out of our search marketing system, Panama, which improved the search experience for our users, boosted returns for our advertisers, and increased revenue for Yahoo!. Last year, we bought Right Media, an exchange that enables buyers and sellers of online advertising to come together. Another 2007 acquisition, Blue Lithium, brings us best-in-class performance marketing capabilities, complementing Yahoo!’s existing offerings for advertisers. We also integrated our search advertising and display advertising sales forces, creating a one-stop shop for all of advertisers’ online marketing needs. All of these - Panama, Right Media, Blue Lithium, and our combined sales efforts - complement and enhance Yahoo!’s existing capabilities and will make it easier for advertisers and online publishers to buy and sell advertising online.

We are also creating a unique and valuable network of premium websites to serve our advertisers. We are making it easier for our advertisers to provide interesting and relevant offers to our users by combining advertising space on Yahoo!’s owned sites with that from a growing group of premium partners including eBay, Comcast, AT&T, a consortium of over 600 newspapers and many others.

As we reach more users both on our own websites and on the sites of our premium partners, and better monetize the ad space on Yahoo!’s owned and operated sites, we are striving to increase the percentage of total online advertising demand we touch from an estimated 15% in 2007 to 20% over the next several years.

These key strategies will be enhanced by our adoption of new, more open technology platforms that will encourage the development of new applications and the involvement of third-party developers - and help enrich the user experience.

We have accomplished a great deal in a very short time - and we are focused on building this momentum

Today, Yahoo! is a faster-moving, better-organized, more nimble company than it was just a few months ago. We have redeployed our resources to drive Yahoo!’s key strategic priorities - taking important steps to streamline our organization and close down or scale back businesses that don’t support these critical growth initiatives. The fact is that we are well on our way to transforming the experiences of Yahoo!’s users, advertisers, publishers and developers - an important shift that is at the heart of our plan to create stockholder value.

I want you to know that the Yahoo! Board of Directors and management team remain committed to pursuing initiatives that maximize value for all our Yahoo! stockholders. This is a great company and we are moving quickly to make it even better.

Jerry Yang

微软忧虑谷歌却不知道如何和谷歌战斗，因为他们是一家软件公司，根深蒂固的思维无法真正理解谷歌，而收购互联网巨头雅虎正好弥补了他们这一缺陷，一旦微软与雅虎的婚姻美满达成，微软将底气十足地与谷歌对抗。

雅虎将不再孤独，杨致远曾经说过，“做雅虎的CEO是一件孤独的工作”，雅虎的CEO要想的太多，雅虎的资本结构等都影响着雅虎的发展与决策，雅虎目前已经受创新难困扰，一直跟着谷歌的屁股却追不上是一件十分痛苦的事情。而微软收购雅虎则可以让微软与雅虎搭档来实现资源和技术、资本的深度整合，形成航空母舰。

有了微软，雅虎不必去收购一个又一个网站，完全可以自己开发出来，并通过微软和雅虎的共同平台来迅速推广壮大，微软与雅虎的婚姻将使得雅虎的互联网平台和微软的软件平台形成一个统一的大平台，从理念到应用，这个家庭无所不能。

微软与雅虎结合后的技术人才与资本让人恐怖，互联网顶尖的人才基本在谷歌、雅虎、微软这样的大公司，而微软雅虎结合则形成一个大的智囊团，这是任何企业无法拥有的，他们拥有这个世界上最多的天才。

中国雅虎受益，笔者认为中国雅虎将受益，虽然现在归阿里管理，如果微软收购雅虎，马云将会很高兴，以为微软在中国的项目很多可以抛弃代理公司而选择阿里和中国雅虎，这样中国雅虎将不再孤独，将有更多的资源与战友。同时，微软也可以利用阿里集团把互联网业务在中国迅速壮大，形成不可忽视的力量。

谷歌将迎来最强大的对手，短期内谷歌不会被震慑，但是微软与雅虎整合差不多的时候，谷歌的压力将来自全方面的。谷歌的所有算盘都要全面重新设计，谷歌的应用方面的项目将会面对更大的压力与挑战。

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